Market Commentary week of November 6th, 2017
This week brings us the release of little that is expected to affect mortgage rates. There is only one monthly report set to be posted in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions that can be influential. It is likely to be a much calmer week for the mortgage market compared to recent weeks.
There is nothing of importance scheduled for tomorrow or Tuesday, so we can expect bonds and mortgage rates to be driven by stock movement as the weeks starts. Last Friday’s Employment report-fueled bond gains could extend into tomorrow’s trading, possibly helping rates to begin the week on a positive note.
The first events of the week will be the two important Treasury auctions Wednesday and Thursday. 10-year Treasury Notes will be sold Wednesday while 30-year Bonds go Thursday, giving us an indication of demand for long-term securities. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market move higher during afternoon trading Wednesday and/or Thursday. But a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to broader bond selling. The selling in bonds would probably result in upward revisions to mortgage rates. Wednesday’s 10-year Note auction usually has the bigger impact on rates than 30-year Bonds.
We will get the sole piece of relevant monthly economic data late Friday morning when November’s preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is posted. This index measures consumer confidence, which gives us an indication of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a reading of 100.4, down a little from October’s final reading of 100.7. That would be considered positive news for bonds because rising sentiment means consumers are more optimistic about their own financial situations and are more likely to make large purchases in the near future. And with consumer spending so important, any related data is watched closely. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for mortgage shoppers.
Overall, I am not expecting to see an overly active week for mortgage rates, although we should see movement more than one day. Wednesday is the best candidate for most important day due to the afternoon Treasury auction. We could see the markets get active at any time if stocks make a move upward or downward, so it is recommended that you still maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing soon.